Sunday, September 30, 2012

Take Out the Poll Biases and Romney's Ahead

Did you hear? The 2012 election is over and Barack Obama won. At least that's the impression you would get if you landed on this planet yesterday and turned on the ObamaBot Zombie media.

The Middle East is in meltdown; maybe if the liberal's messiah ignores it long enough, it will go away. Kind of like Barry wishes Iran would just go away and stop threatening us and our greatest ally -- you know, the one whose prime minister Barry refuses to meet with.

Did you know the net increase in jobs during to Obama presidency is -1.3 million? (Yes that's MINUS.) Or that per capita household income is down 8% since Barry took office? I suspect most of you know that Barry's master plan that :"energy prices will necessarily skyrocket" is well underway. Can you imagine how the ObamaBot leftist media would be dogging GW Bush if gas prices doubled during his presidency? Oh wait, they did and it did. But do you remember all the praise they heaped on him when his policies helped slash gas prices by 200% in the waning days of his presidency? You don't because it didn't happen. But nary a word about Barry's culpability for the sky-high gas prices of today.

Yes for the last three and a half years, we've had the most pathetic presidency in modern history -- nothing has gone right except for Barack Obama's "fundamental transformation" of our country from a strong one into to a weak one.

Given all this, you would think Scott Pelley would have something more important to lead his CBS (emphasis on "BS") Friday night newscast with than the made-up story that Mitt Romney's presidential campaign needs to be "revived". But the ObamaBot Zombie media has their narrative and nothing will distract them from their duty to make everyone think our country is in the middle of a miraculous recovery and Mitt Romney's campaign is on the ropes.

Which brings us to the polls the leftist media routinely manipulate to make all of us think that there is no sense in Mitt and Paul even trying to win because it's useless -- based on the polls, Barry's popularity is skyrocketing and according to some, one party dictatorship would be fantastic -- amazingly some polls are showing that a majority of Americans think one-party rule would be just terrific. Ask Cubans what they think of one-party rule in Cuba.

But hold on just a minute. Does anyone really believe that 25% of women in Ohio believe that issues of their vaginas trump the fact that gas prices have more than doubled during the Obama presidency and their home values have dropped 40% on average? Of course not, but some polls are reporting that Obama has a 25% lead over Romney with women in Ohio. So to the extent that you can even believe the polls, you have to take out the built in bias that some polling organizations use to manipulate the data and therefore public opinion. Most polls greatly over sample Democrats. And a poll is only as accurate as the sample. And let's face it: The dependent class, which has a large constituency in the Democratic Party, tends to be home to answer the phone more than the productive class which has a large constituency in the Republican Party.

So how do you account for these biases? You filter out the biases to come up with a more accurate number. Which is exactly what does. When the bias is removed, the aggregate of all popular polls shows Romney with a 7.4% lead. This is consistent with the results we saw when the last crappiest president in modern history -- Jimmy Carter -- was running against Ronald Reagan. The polls showed a Carter blowout coming out of his lackluster convention and the actual election ended up being a big Reagan blowout. Typical 2012 presidential polls are using the turnout model from the 2008 election which, as in 1980, skews heavily Democrat. If anyone thinks Republicans aren't motivated to kick Barry out of office in 2012, they're smokin' dope. So it stands to reason that an aggregate that eliminates the overwhelming Democrat bias in typical polls would give you a result that more accurately reflects what the actual outcome will be.

In the end, no one really knows and it's hard to tell what the outcome will be on Nov. 6. But it stands to reason that an aggregate with the biases removed is going to be more accurate that oversampling Democrats in an election where Republicans are highly motivated to turn out. And the future of our country as we know it depends on a Romney win. In other words, the polls with all their built-in biases favoring Barry had better be wrong. Because if these polls aren't skewed, we're all screwed in November and we'll be living in one giant Venezuela come 2016.

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